estimated deaths in the United States today

≈ MODELLED ESTIMATEP PROVISIONAL-ENHANCEDNOT A LIVE DEATH REGISTRY

MORTALITY ACROSS AMERICA

Where are those deaths distributed?

MAP SHOWS

LOWERHIGHER● FINAL 2024 · age-adjusted deaths per 100,000

MORTALITY RATE2024 age-adjusted deaths per 100,000

SELECT A STATE

Explore the mapState-level estimates are not published yet.

50 states + District of Columbia · Alaska and Hawaii shown as insets

HOW DO YOU KNOW?

We don't watch deaths happen.

There is no national system reporting every U.S. death the moment it occurs. ReaperMapper therefore estimates expected mortality from official CDC/NCHS statistics. ≈ 8,273 is a modelled expectation, not a count of people observed dying today.

01 · NATIONAL ESTIMATE

Start with the newest credible annual picture.

Model 0.2 uses the CDC/NCHS 2025 provisional total of 3,094,593 U.S. deaths as its annual baseline. Provisional data are newer than final statistics, but can still be revised.

02 · SEASONALITY

Deaths are not evenly distributed through the year.

The annual baseline is distributed using the monthly pattern from the latest validated final mortality data. October's expected total is then divided across its 31 calendar days to produce today's daily expectation.

03 · STATES

Make the states add back to America.

Each state's daily estimate is allocated from the national estimate using its share of final 2024 U.S.-resident deaths. Integer allocation preserves the national total, so all 50 states plus D.C. sum to the displayed U.S. estimate.

04 · TWO MAP VIEWS

Rate and count answer different questions.

Mortality Rate colors states by CDC's final 2024 age-adjusted all-cause death rate per 100,000, making relative mortality easier to compare across states. Estimated Deaths Today colors the same map by Model 0.2's estimated daily state counts, showing where more deaths are expected in absolute numbers. Those counts are modelled—not observed live deaths.

MODEL0.2

ANNUAL BASELINEP · 20253,094,593 deaths

SEASONAL SOURCE● · 2024final monthly mortality

STATE ALLOCATION● · 2024final resident deaths

MAP VIEWS● / ≈2024 final rate / Model 0.2 daily estimate

≈Modelled estimate

PProvisional data

●Final data

ReaperMapper does not identify individual deaths, predict who will die, or claim that a death occurred when the display changes. Recent provisional mortality data can be incomplete because death certificates take time to be reported and processed.

SOURCES & DATA

Follow the numbers.

ReaperMapper separates official mortality data from the estimates built on top of it. The source year and status are shown wherever they matter.

P · 2025Provisional U.S. mortalityCDC/NCHS Vital Statistics Rapid Release No. 44 · 3,094,593 deaths · 99.9% of 2025 records received and processed as of May 10, 2026OPEN SOURCE ↗ ● · 2024Final U.S. mortalityNational Vital Statistics System · 3,072,666 resident deaths · age-adjusted rate 722.1 per 100,000OPEN SOURCE ↗ ● · 2024State deaths & mortality ratesNVSS mortality state data via CDC WONDER · final death counts and age-adjusted rates used by the state viewsOPEN SOURCE ↗ ● · 2024CDC Stats of the StatesState mortality comparison framework · CDC notes that age-adjusted rates are used to compare states more meaningfullyOPEN SOURCE ↗

≈ MODEL 0.2

ReaperMapper's displayed daily and state counts are derived estimates, not values published by CDC. The national daily expectation combines the provisional 2025 annual baseline with final 2024 seasonality; state daily estimates are allocated from that national total using final 2024 state shares.